Politics

The Democrats have been hopeless

Leonard HongLeave a comment

It was in 2016 when I first watched and observed the outcomes of a US Presidential election. I detested Hillary Clinton back then – I still do now – but I didn’t expect Donald Trump to win, yet he did. Following on from Brexit, this was another shock to the American Establishment and symbolic of the rise of national populism. Back then, I was a hardcore social democrat, and I was disappointed and sad that America lost the opportunity to elect a 21st-century version of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Bernie Sanders. I consider myself a moderate centrist today, but that’ll be discussed in another blog post.

The world witnessed four years of a Republican White House and boy it was a period of pure entertainment and a complete mess. Now it’s 2020 and the Democrats have selected an old, weak and out of touch politician – Joe Biden – as their candidate. Throughout 2019 and 2020, I felt that the liberal establishment learnt absolutely nothing from 2016, and it shows. Despite the polls suggesting that it will be a landslide for Biden, they were completely wrong. The US election is still an ongoing dispute and it is still too close to call for either of the candidates. The rustbelt states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin have moved back towards the Democrats, but only because of Trump’s incompetency regarding Covid-19. They have lost seats in the House and also the Senate is in the strong hands of the Republicans. If Trump didn’t have to deal with Covid-19, the President may have indeed had a landslide victory against Biden.

The question is why did the Democrats perform so poorly despite the expectation? The Americans have faced a period of complete chaotic governance by the Trump Administration but many still voted for him. The fact of the matter is that many Americans are sick and tired of political correctness, wokeness, and identity politics. And this is taking into account Trump’s disastrous policies. Many people including Sam Harris, Andrew Sullivan, Eric Weinstein, Paul Graham, and Niall Ferguson and others have previously warned centre-left people about this form of politics.

One prominent scholar that understood this problem for the Democrats was Stanford’s Francis Fukuyama. He covered this topic of identity politics in his book, ‘Identity: The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment’. The core thesis of the book surrounds the concept of ‘thymos’. Fukuyama described it as “part of the soul that craves recognition or dignity.” Fukuyama says that the thymos of blue-collar, white Americans was not recognised by the political and economic establishment in America in 2016. The craving of status and recognition is not a new phenomenon, which is evident from the cultural movements of the 1960s – the civil rights movement of African Americans, Women, LGBT, and even the environmental movement. These movements were legitimate and necessary but extended far beyond its necessity up until 2016. Because that sense of dignity was ignored by the Democrats, but recognised by Trump in the form of nationalist sentiment and protectionist economic policies, they switched to him. Even with his racial rhetoric, many didn’t care, they were just glad someone wanted to talk about the negative externalities caused by globalisation. The former core of the Democratic Party was on socioeconomic issues, but it moved on entirely into cultural matters, even in 2020. 

Another scholar regarding this is Charles Murray. His book ‘Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960–2010’, explored the economic consequences of globalisation and how there is a growing gap between white working-class Americans and the urban white-collar class. The sad state of working-class America was largely ignored by the liberal establishment. The state of white America is increasingly divided along economic lines, not cultural lines. The Democrats didn’t even talk about this topic in 2016, nor did they refer to it in 2020. The Party has taken the votes of traditional blue-collar Democrats for granted.

Hence many former voters of Obama switched to Trump. This is why they lost 2016, and may only just marginally win 2020 because of Covid-19. Instead of trying to legitimately deal with the adverse consequences of globalisation, and help those people that lost their jobs to China and Mexico, their mantra was focused on intersectionalism, transgender bathrooms, and the dangers of white supremacy. Think about it, if you are a former worker of a manufacturing factory in Pennsylvania, and you lost your job, got divorced and on unemployment benefits, and the Democrats are talking about 50/50 quotas, gender pronouns, refugee rights, global governance and so on – you would feel politically unrecognised. They ignored the former core base that has voted for them from the 1930s to the 1990s. The embodiment of woke politics is symbolised by Democratic politicians like Stacey Abrams, Kamala Harris (the unlikable Vice-Presidential candidate), Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and others.

George Mason University Professor Alex Tabarrok’s Tweet sums this phenomenon quite well:

My takeaway is that a large number of people HATE the cultural left (not the econ left) and are willing to put up with almost anything, including incompetence, chaos, corruption and bad policy, to signal their views loud and clear.

The Democrats need to move on from identity politics and move back to the core economic issues of our time – this also applies to the New Zealand Labour Party and the Greens by the way. The world is witnessing the rise of a new technological revolution and developments in Artificial Intelligence and automation. This will disrupt the international labour market significantly. This will be far more pervasive than the Industrial Revolution and exponentially more consequential. We also have global warming and climate change that requires vigorous economic and scientific analysis to legitimately solve this international problem. We also have an ongoing geopolitical competition with the West and China. Are Democrats taking these challenges seriously? In my eyes, the answer is ‘No’. The economic left of the party needs to regain control of the narrative and the cultural left need to understand that this style of woke politics will drive more voters towards the right. There is a legitimately strong case for competent centre-left politics that can try to correct structural dislocation of manufacturing work and increasingly precarious jobs (including repetitive white-collar jobs too). I see politicians such as Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard as the potential embodiment of the Democratic Party’s future (coincidently they are American minorities as well).

The Democrats have so far been absolutely hopeless. Regardless of what the 2020 election outcomes will be, they need to take socioeconomic issues far more seriously. As a fan and admirer of the United States, I hope they sort their domestic affairs out.


Third Option for the International System – Rodrik and Walt

Leonard HongLeave a comment

With the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, the Sino-American relationship is worsening. Tensions are heating as President Trump recently imposed sanctions on China’s largest chipmaker, SMIC.

American actions are becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy towards direct conflict. The world is getting closer to falling for the Thucydides Trap. As foreign policy experts continue to reiterate the inevitabilities of a New Cold War, will conflict be the destiny of the two great powers?

Harvard’s Stephen Walt and Dani Rodrik offered a third alternative in their paper ‘Constructing A New World Order’. The aim is to set an international institutional framework that creates as much stability and cooperation as possible.

First, the authors reject the ‘deep integration’ goals of the liberal internationalists. Rejuvenating multilateralism and hyper-globalisation are well-intended policies. But it creates unintended consequences that undermine the economic stability of western liberal democracies. China would also be unwilling to further integrate into the global trading system from its state-led developmental model.

Second, they disregard the hard-line hawkish approach advocated by the Trump Administration. The current decoupling strategy against China creates ‘beggar-thy neighbour’ effects on other nations. This also prevents mutually beneficial cooperation occurring with the Chinese, especially regarding global public health, improving nuclear security, and addressing climate change.

The goal is setting a pragmatic and realistic approach within the Sino-American relationship. The international system should allow the nation-states to set their own foreign and economic policies.

There are four categorisations of policies that fit within their institutional theory. There is Universal Agreement; Cooperative Negotiations; Autonomous Policy; and Multilateral Governance.

Indeed, Walt and Rodrik’s ‘Modus Vivendi’ international system is a pragmatic institutional mechanism. But, can Uncle Sam stay committed to mutually beneficial cooperation and reduce the risk of falling for the Thucydides Trap?

The Sino-American competition will shape the next few decades of the world order. As both powers strive to compete for power and international influence, the goal for the world is to keep the competition away from a hot war within bounds.

Institutionalising a set of rules on foreign and trade policies could help assuage great power politics. This could also incentivise foreign policymakers from both sides towards restraint as both a peaceful international order and continued globalisation is critical for small powers like New Zealand.

The leaders of the two great powers in the system are two egomaniacs. Their recklessness may make a third alternative for the international system as impossible. But let us hope for the best.

The Vestiges of Machiavelli

Leonard HongLeave a comment

Political discussions in liberal democracies are supposed to be about the battle of ideas, heterodox exchanges, and civil debates. Politicians and leaders present their arguments for a better and productive society through public discourse.

However, recent scandals in Parliament have indicated that it is not really the case. People have forgotten that politicians do not operate under the guises of morality, but manoeuvre based on strategy within established rules of the game — the game of survival in politics. Politics is rife with clever duplicity and manipulation.

Every member of Parliament has two main interests in mind — maintaining power and being perceived as a noble, honest fellow. As Machiavelli once said, “Everyone sees what you appear to be, few really know what you really are.”

Should the public expect more ‘Machiavellian’ behaviour as the election campaign goes underway? If so, what can we learn and observe from the late 15th century philosopher’s wisdom?

Political marketing to Machiavelli is a seductive tool and the use of charming to mislead the public. “It is double pleasure to deceive the deceiver” and “one who deceives will always find those who allow themselves to be deceived.” — A tool the Prime Minister utilises to perfection with her omnipresent slogan, ‘Be Kind’.

Regarding the competence of our leadership, he states that “the first method for estimating the intelligence of a ruler is to look at the men he has around him.” If you do not have a competent team, pointless blunders will hit the spotlight, shown by recent resignations.   

Unfortunately, public policy will not be the driver of electoral success. Machiavelli states that “princes have accomplished most who paid little heed to keeping their promises, but who knew how to manipulate the minds of men craftily.” Cunning political strategies are the best ways to preserve or gain power.

Machiavelli always maintained the importance of being effective without being impotently pure. Regarding leadership, he recommends that “Whosoever desires constant success must change his conduct with the times.”

What are the ultimate lessons? Even under liberal democracies, politicians will always use cunning deception to attain or maintain power. Machiavelli was a republican and an astute observer of human nature, that politicians will always strive to serve their main interests — this is just reality.

We must understand that despite the imperfections of our system, liberal democracy still allows us to have a voice in contrast to autocracies. Multiparty systems still provide a check and balance of power on the leadership and their potential to abuse it.

Self-interests are the norms of politics, but if we genuinely want to have competent and effective leadership, the public must understand this aspect of human nature — effective politics require some level of Machiavellianism.  

Prime Minister has the Beehive in the bag — 2020 General Election

Leonard HongLeave a comment

Figure 1: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. 

 

New Zealanders have witnessed partisan nonsense from both sides of the House of Representatives during the Covid-19 pandemic. Ranging from Hamish Walker’s disgraceful letter about quarantine arrivals, Michelle Boag’s woeful decisions, David Clark’s resignation as Health Minister, and in addition blunderous border management by few incompetent Cabinet Ministers. Whilst such partisanship is not surprising to me in politics, the severity of some of these scandals leaves a nasty taste in my mouth. Instead of focusing on the main task of keeping our team of 5 million safe from Covid-19, many politicians in Parliament would rather shoot cheap shots at one another. During the midst of all of this, the centre-left Labour Party will almost certainly win the election and the main key asset for this instrumental task is the Prime Minister herself. 

Why do I think the Prime Minister will win? Multifaceted reasons. I’ve known the Prime Minister for a few years beginning in 2016 when I volunteered for the NZ Labour Party initially as a young undergraduate at The University of Auckland. She has always had the personal charm and likability to woo, charm, and make people feel important. I am sure the late Dale Carnegie would approve of her social competence. Without her, the Labour Party would still be in opposition under Andrew Little or some other Labour leader in another universe. Jacinda was the only person that would have had the abilities and leadership qualities to lead Labour to victory, which she did in the 2017 General Election. It was no wonder that for years people touted her as the next leader of New Zealand before. Now as the incumbent, I expect her to win.

Why do I think the Prime Minister will win? Multifaceted reasons. I’ve known the Prime Minister for a few years beginning in 2016 when I volunteered for the NZ Labour Party initially as a young undergraduate at The University of Auckland. She has always had the personal charm and likability to woo, charm, and make people feel important. I am sure the late Dale Carnegie would approve of her social competence. Without her, the Labour Party would still be in opposition under Andrew Little or some other Labour leader in another universe. Jacinda was the only person that would have had the abilities and leadership qualities to lead Labour to victory, which she did in the 2017 General Election. It was no wonder that for years people touted her as the next leader of New Zealand before. Now as the incumbent, I expect her to win.  

Jacinda is the most charismatic, likeable, and respectable politician that I have personally witnessed. The masterful political marketing on social media, her genuine smile and exceptional communication skills are nothing short of remarkable. If there was a textbook that I would use for my hypothetical communication class, I would use her as the main role model. I know rarely anyone besides her in the Labour Party with this kind of talent. Some may even claim that she was born for the role…perhaps. This is the key factor that will win her the election. Simply put, the New Zealand public really likes her. The Covid-19 pandemic also may have helped her in the polls, as incumbents tend to do better during crises. Evidenced by President George W. Bush’s approval rating skyrocketing to above 88% during 9/11. But the personable qualities of the Prime Minister helped the Labour Party to climb well above National today. Her identity also shaped her likeability, especially for a small, young and progressive country like Aotearoa. As a female who is young, attractive, relatable, and extremely charismatic, she had all the cards that helped her seem relatable. 

In contrast, National has not had anyone on a similar level as Ardern since Sir John Key. Although Simon Bridges is very good when you meet him privately, however, on television and social media, he didn’t have that key spark required to get people on your side. His negative approval rating and his image as a bitter, resentful person hasn’t helped. Although his successor Todd Muller has a positive net approval rating but is someone known as a simple ‘boring old white guy’. Neither does he have personal social competence equal to the Prime Minister and I expect him to be out once the election is over. Until National find a person as equally sociable as Jacinda, they will struggle for years to come. The Key/English years are over, and they must find a long term solution to this missing gap in National’s leadership. The other alternative is for the current leadership self-improve themselves on the basis of mimicking Jacinda’s abilities. The rebuilding stage needs to happen now. For now, they can hope for at least 35% to save most of the caucus, but the pinnacle difference between the two major parties is charisma and charm of the leadership. 

Why do I think the Prime Minister will win? Multifaceted reasons. I’ve known the Prime Minister for a few years beginning in 2016 when I volunteered for the NZ Labour Party initially as a young undergraduate at The University of Auckland. She has always had the personal charm and likability to woo, charm, and make people feel important. I am sure the late Dale Carnegie would approve of her social competence. Without her, the Labour Party would still be in opposition under Andrew Little or some other Labour leader in another universe. Jacinda was the only person that would have had the abilities and leadership qualities to lead Labour to victory, which she did in the 2017 General Election. It was no wonder that for years people touted her as the next leader of New Zealand before. Now as the incumbent, I expect her to win.  

However, the Labour Party have a clear competence problem within its hierarchy. The Prime Minister has been exceptional as a communicator throughout the pandemic, illustrated in her excellent press conferences with Dr. Ashley Bloomfield. But you cannot run a country well without a great team. There is a reason people like Clare Curran and David Clark were targeted by the opposition – they were incompetent. Period. 

Although there are a few very competent Ministers such as Grant Robertson, David Parker, Kris Faafoi, and the new Health Minister Chris Hipkins — on top of his three additional portfolios. After the election, they need to build a broadly new cabinet with the competence, skillsets and abilities to keep New Zealand safe, not just from Covid-19, but also from our precarious economic position. The Prime Minister may be able to rely on her sociability for now, but she must be far more decisive in either sacking or removing incompetent people in Cabinet. As Machiavelli once said, “He who wishes to be obeyed must know how to command.” I’m glad to see the addition of Epidemiologist Dr. Ayesha Verrell in Parliament soon and I know she will make a good contribution for New Zealanders. Hopefully, Ardern realises soon that incompetence will get punished in the next poll in 2023. 

The Prime Minister has this in the bag, for now. But until the actual election results, we won’t find out until October.  

East Asia – Role Model for Covid-19

Leonard HongLeave a comment

29 May, 2020

Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan deserve praise for fighting Covid-19.

While Singapore and South Korea were hit with a second outbreak, their robust containment measures have kicked back in to stop rapid spread of the virus once more. As New Zealand ponders how to prepare for a future pandemic, it should look to East Asia.

Vietnam and Hong Kong also showed early success against the coronavirus, but the New Zealand Government has focused its attention on those first three countries.

The common factor for their success was their experience with the SARS pandemic in 2003 and MERS in 2015. They built better epidemiological and quarantine systems along with border controls, high-level diagnostic testing and rapid contact tracing capacities. They also regularly disinfect public spaces and encourage the public use of masks.

In the last few weeks, another outbreak of Covid-19 makes it appear Singapore’s performance was a complete failure, but it was not. These new community cases constitute only 7% of the total count and more accurately reflect human error in monitoring a handful of migrant dormitories than a systemic failure of the city-state’s response plans.

Further north, South Korea recovered quickly from an initial outbreak in March. The government’s ‘smart-city data hub’ allowed it to quickly locate cases again after a second outbreak occurred in Seoul bars. So far, a total of 1982 possible cases have been rapidly traced by this system, keeping the average number of fresh daily cases low at 23.

Stanford University’s Jason Wang said Taiwan’s response was among the best in the world. Its timely border controls for flights coming from China began on December 31, 2019 – a full month before other nations thought about similar controls. By March 20, Taiwan only had 27 new cases. Once again, a digital surveillance system was critical in tracking down and isolating individuals with the virus.

New Zealand’s Covid-19 containment performance was impressive. But, as Kiwi epidemiologists have emphasised, its contact tracing system still has plenty of room for improvement. As South Korea and Singapore have shown, there is still a real risk of a second outbreak from even one new superspreader.

That’s why it is an imperative that New Zealand take this opportunity to repair and prepare its contact tracing capacity to ensure the country holds onto its hard-won gains. Those three East Asian states offer plenty of great examples to get this done.